Already underway, these seven global trends shape how we create impact as NGO leaders, activists, social pioneers, or entrepreneurs. They represent long-term changes that have influenced the NGO sector for several decades and will continue to do so in the decades to come. Here is one of my favourite quotes:
"The future is a dance between patterns and events."
Bouten, Allen and Bowman, 2015: Embracing Complexity.
Our seven trends emerge from patterns we observe as we investigate the past. For example, in 2011, IBM's Dr. Watson triumphed on Jeopardy, marking a milestone in artificial intelligence. Fast forward to 2020, the launch of ChatGPT revolutionized how we interact with AI. These events, among others, point to a clear pattern: artificial intelligence is reshaping the world and will profoundly impact the future—including the work of NGOs. While these patterns help us understand broad directions, predicting specific future events remains a challenge in our complex and interconnected world. The future holds uncertainty, but recognising these trends allows us to prepare and adapt.
For many of us, imagining what the future holds—what events may shape the world and what they might mean for us—is both inspiring and thought-provoking. It’s an exercise that stirs excitement, curiosity, and sometimes even fear. Yet, it’s through this process that we can begin to craft a compelling vision for the future.
If you are a leader of an organisation, you likely already reflect on these trends as you envision your organisation’s future within an ever-evolving context. Anticipation is a key strategic leadership skill, as is decision-making and following up on organisational priorities, which should be grounded in sound foresight. What will your moves be on the future dance floor, to which tunes, and with which partners?
And here comes another one of my favourite quotes:
“The reasonable man adapts himself to the world: the unreasonable one persists in trying to adapt the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the unreasonable man.”
― George Bernard Shaw
So, which one are you: the reasonable or the unreasonable?
Do we adapt ourselves and our organisation to the trends and use them strategically to thrive in the future?
Or
Do we adapt to the trends and influence the world to align with what we want and dream of?
I am sure there is a bit of the unreasonable in most of you. Imagine: how awesome it would be if you, yes you, would be the one who …
… is at the forefront of a powerful Global Citizenship Movement (2035) that will hold governments accountable and step up for a more equitable world order.
… plays a key role in preventing the 2-degree global warming event from happening by 2045.
Or
... helps build an AI-powered Global Education Network that will help provide elementary education to every child on the planet by 2040.
We invite you to take a moment to envision the future and your role in shaping it. Our hope is that these seven trends will inspire you during this visioning exercise.
Please note: We acknowledge that our trends are incomplete, interconnected, and open to interpretation. Feel free to share your suggestions or use them as a springboard to create your own perspective on emerging trends.
Trend 1. Emerging World Order
There is a worrying pattern of authoritarianism and nationalism within governments and among people in many parts of the World. At the same time, China and India continue to ascend economically, politically, and militarily. New regional powers emerge, such as Nigeria, Indonesia, and Ethiopia, with large, young, and ambitious populations.
We write this article just as Donald Trump enters the White House for the second term. It is hard to say how our male, ageing authoritarian world leaders such as Trump, Netanyahu, Putin, Xi, and Modi will shape the world. But it does not look good, and we should prepare ourselves for a long and hard struggle.
Some critical events pre-2025:
Belt and Road Initiative (2013): China's global development strategy, influencing infrastructure and investment across Asia, Europe, and Africa.
Brexit and Trump's Election (2016): These events signaled significant shifts in political landscapes, affecting international relations and funding for NGOs. They underscored the rising influence of nationalism and changing global alliances. The events are also often connected to the rise of "fake news".
The war in Ukraine started (2022): The war in Ukraine has intensified geopolitical tensions, disrupted global energy and food supplies, and prompted a realignment of international alliances. Together with the war on Gaza and tensions over Taiwan, it demonstrated the fragility of the current world order.
Slowly, More Countries Turn Authoritarian (the 2010s and 2020s): 59 in 2024, compared to 51 in 2008, are considered authoritarian, according to The Economist Democracy Index. The increasing number of autocratic regimes poses challenges for billions of people and the NGOs operating in such environments. This trend threatens democratic governance and civil liberties, impacting NGO activities.
Here are a few events that may happen post-2025:
China Becomes Largest Economy Before the US and India (2037): China's and India's economic ascendance will reshape global trade and development priorities. This shift will require NGOs to adapt to new economic power dynamics and engage with Chinese and Indian stakeholders.
Proxy wars in the 2030's: Just like during the Cold War, proxy wars are likely to emerge on many continents. In an emerging multi-polar world, those proxy wars can get even messier than during the Cold War.
Changing Demographics (2050): As projected, the global population will reach 10 billion by 2050. Twenty-five percent reside in South Asia, and another twenty-five per cent in Africa. Mumbai, Delhi, Karachi, and Lagos will join Tokyo as cities with more than 30 million people. These demographic shifts will significantly influence global development priorities and resource allocation.
Trend 2. New Development Challenges
The new mega challenges are migration, conflict, and the environment, especially climate change, with global equity being an overarching tension. The Haves build a fortress of bliss, while the Have-Nots continue to be excluded and carry most of the burden. This makes an explosive mixture. These new challenges threaten the recent progress made in many parts of the world on important indicators of human well-being, such as health, poverty, and education.
Some critical events pre-2025:
War in Syria and Migrant Crisis (2015): The Syrian civil war and the resulting migration crisis underscore the need for NGOs to address complex, multi-faceted humanitarian emergencies that have global repercussions. NGOs must adapt to rapidly changing conflict dynamics and coordinate international efforts to support displaced populations critically.
Sustainable Development Goals and Paris Agreement (2015): These frameworks set ambitious targets for sustainable development and climate action and provide a roadmap for NGOs to align their efforts with global priorities.
Increased armed conflicts (2010s and 2020s): Armed conflicts are sharply rising, especially in Africa. NGOs can mitigate armed conflict by advocating for peaceful resolutions, promoting dialogue among conflicting parties, and supporting community-based conflict prevention initiatives.
Here are two likely projections:
574 million people in extreme poverty by 2030: The number of poor and hungry has fallen sharply in the last decades and is likely to decrease further, which is excellent news. In the future, hunger and extreme poverty is even more connected to conflicts and displacement. For NGOs, this also means that resources might shift from poverty alleviation to new topics, such as humanitarian work, migration, and climate change.
Two-Degree Global Warming (2045): A 2°C rise in global temperatures will lead to severe climate impacts, including extreme weather, sea level rise, and ecosystem collapse, resulting in widespread humanitarian crises. NGOs would face increased demand for disaster relief, advocacy, and sustainability initiatives to help vulnerable communities adapt and mitigate these effects.
Trend 3. New Development Paradigms
If social enterprises and the human rights-based approach were the paradigms at the turn of the millennium, there are now three powerful thought patterns gaining momentum:
The first is related to shifting power and localising aid, which is part of a broader conversation about global fairness and the right of poor countries to make their own decisions—after having been deeply harmed by colonization and now by climate change.
The second paradigm, which I would call "tracing for good," encompasses everything from carbon budgets and monitoring to supply chains, health tracking, and certifications. This approach aims to make all aspects of life more effective, predictable, ethical, healthy, and environmentally friendly. It holds tremendous potential, but it’s also a bit intimidating, isn’t it?
The third paradigm is a direct response to the ongoing conflicts we see around the world: the triple nexus of combining peacebuilding with humanitarian aid and development.
Some critical events pre-2025:
Prof. Yunus Wins Nobel Prize (2006): This event recognised microfinance as a tool for poverty alleviation and highlighted the potential of alternative development models. Microfinance has since empowered millions, particularly women, to improve their livelihoods.
Grand Bargain for Localisation of Aid (2016): The Grand Bargain and the localisation of aid emphasise the need for NGOs to shift resources and decision-making power closer to affected communities, enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of humanitarian responses. This trend encourages NGOs to build stronger partnerships with local organisations, ensuring aid is more responsive to the specific needs and contexts of those it aims to help.
The Triple Nexus (2020s): The Triple Nexus, integrating humanitarian aid, development, and peacebuilding, promotes a coordinated approach to complex global challenges. NGOs are key players in this paradigm, using their on-the-ground expertise to bridge sectors and create sustainable, resilient solutions in conflict-affected regions.
European Union (EU) Supply Chain Act Becomes Valid (2026): This legislation ensures that companies operating in the EU adhere to stringent environmental and human rights standards throughout their supply chains. NGOs will monitor compliance and advocate for broader adoption.
Here are two optimistic predictions:
Launch of Real-Time Accountability Platforms: In 2035, large NGOs will launch advanced real-time accountability platforms. These platforms use blockchain technology to provide transparent, tamper-proof records of project funding and outcomes. Beneficiaries and stakeholders can access these platforms to view live updates, track fund utilisation, and provide instant feedback on project implementation.
Universal Basic Income Movement Gains Global Momentum (2040): The Universal Basic Income (UBI) movement has gained global traction after successful trials in several countries. Citizens' groups and NGOs advocate adopting UBI to address automation-driven job displacement and economic inequality. This initiative has led to international coalitions pushing for UBI globally, resulting in policy changes in multiple countries.
Circular Economy Becomes the Norm (2045): A global shift towards reusing, recycling, and regenerating resources will minimise waste and environmental impact. This paradigm will promote sustainable consumption and production patterns.
Trend 4: New Funding Models
NGOs are witnessing a transformation in securing and managing funds. In addition to traditional funding sources, innovative models such as impact investments, crowdfunding, and blockchain technology are now available. New funding models focus on transparency, impact and at more localised decision making. At the same time, the fourth sector—between NGOs and Businesses—will grow further and may harvest much of those new funding opportunities.
Some critical events pre-2025:
ArtistShare - The First Crowdfunding Platform (2000): This platform marked the beginning of crowdfunding, allowing artists to obtain funding directly from their audience, a model now widely adopted by NGOs. Crowdfunding has since become a vital tool for NGOs to raise funds for specific projects from a broad base of small donors.
The Giving Pledge (2010): Initiated by Warren Buffett and Bill Gates, this commitment by billionaires to give away most of their wealth has significantly boosted philanthropic contributions. It has encouraged a culture of large-scale philanthropy, including an increasing trend in legacy giving by less wealthy people, impacting NGO funding models.
Impact Investment Gains Momentum (2010): Impact investing, which aims to generate social and environmental benefits alongside financial returns, has grown significantly. This trend provides NGOs with new opportunities to attract funding from investors seeking to make a positive impact.
Emergence of Green Bonds for NGOs (2020): These financial instruments enable NGOs to raise capital for environmentally sustainable projects. Green bonds attract ecologically conscious investors and provide funding for initiatives aimed at combating climate change.
Plausible events in the future:
Climate Impact Investment Funds (2035): Such funds allow corporations and investors to finance climate-focused NGOs through projects to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and promote sustainability. Returns are tied to the measurable impact of these projects, blending financial returns with environmental responsibility.
Universal Digital Currency for Aid (2045): This innovation, predicted to become a standard, will streamline the distribution and management of aid funds globally. It will also make NGOs' work more transparent and encourage direct giving.
Trend 5: Emerging Civil Society
Hyperconnectivity provides a radically new opportunities for the voiceless to learn, to connect, and to influence what is happening in their countries and even the world. At the same time, aggressive authoritarian rulers and their business proxies try to capture their emotions and allegience with overly negative narratives. How can we build a counterweight to those powerful interests?
The movers and shakers of the future will be lean, tech-savy organisations with sound social values, large outreach and great virtual platforms. They use participatory media and artificial intelligence to engage with people that are hungry for change.
Some critical events pre-2025:
ActionAid Switches to a Rights-Based Approach (2000) - This shift by ActionAid focused on addressing the underlying causes of poverty and inequality. It emphasised the importance of empowering communities to claim their rights.
Wikileaks founded (2006): WikiLeaks is a trendsetter as it pioneered an online platform for leaking confidential information, challenging traditional media and governmental secrecy. Its approach has influenced how whistleblowers and activists use digital tools to promote transparency and accountability.
Arab Spring (2011): This uprising demonstrated the power of grassroots movements to effect political change and highlighted the role of social media in mobilising and coordinating civil actions.
Fridays for the Future (2018): Led by Greta Thunberg, this global climate strike movement highlighted the role of youth activism. It has significantly raised awareness and pressure for urgent climate action.
The rise in digital activism (2020s): Following #MeToo and Black Lives Matter, this trend enables civil society to mobilise quickly, reach global audiences, and amplify grassroots movements through social media and online platforms. This trend enhances the ability to organise, advocate, and influence policy on a larger scale than traditional methods.
Here are three optimistic scenarios:
Decentralised NGO networks: In 2030, the first large NGOs take localisation to the next level and evolve their structures into large decentralised networks with empowered local NGOs and citizen groups and localised funding mechanisms.
Global Citizenship Movement (2035): This influential tech- and activist driven movement advocates for policies prioritising human rights and global solidarity over national interests. It promote a more inclusive and equitable world.
A new dawn for small NGOs: Decentralised funding mechanisms, and an increase in payments for eco-system services and carbon credits create a new framework for local NGOs, which are solidly based in communities and use technology to manage their services and payments.
Trend 6: New Ways to Collaborate
Collaboration in the workplace has become faster and more effective. It is based on self-managed individuals who work in teams. Millions of teams now use scrum or other agile project management systems, and develop products or solutions, and define strategies and workflows on Miro boards or other online collaboration platforms.
The NGO sector has been slow in adapting to those new opportunities, even though collaboration is essential for NGOs, within the organisations, with like-minded partners and collaborating with the target groups. New technologies have a huge potential to bridge the distance to our target groups and make our work truly participatory.
Some critical events pre-2025:
First Scrum Team (1993): The first Scrum team, formed by Jeff Sutherland and Ken Schwaber, introduced an iterative and flexible approach to project management that emphasises teamwork, accountability, and continuous improvement. This form of collaboration fostered a more adaptive, transparent, and cross-functional work environment, influencing how teams across industries operate today.
Google Docs Launched (2006): Revolutionising real-time online collaboration. This tool has become essential for remote teamwork, enabling efficient document sharing and editing.
MIRO (2011): MIRO launched in 2011, is an online collaborative whiteboard platform that allows distributed teams to brainstorm, plan, and work together in real-time. It has transformed remote collaboration by enabling seamless visual communication and interactive teamwork, bridging the gap between in-person and virtual workspaces.
Corona boost to virtual collaboration (2020): The COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the adoption of virtual collaboration tools as organisations shifted to remote work to maintain operations. This boost has led to the widespread use of video conferencing, project management software, and digital communication platforms, transforming how teams collaborate.
In the 2020s, new decentralised and non-hierarchical organisational systems gained momentum: Holacracy or Decentralised Autonomous Organisations (DAOs) promote flatter, more flexible structures where decision-making is distributed across teams or governed by smart contracts. These models empower individuals, enhance transparency, and help them adapt quickly to change, challenging traditional hierarchical management and fostering more incredible innovation and agility within organisations.
Here are a few post-2025 scenarios:
Transparent Worker and Well-being Platforms (2035): By 2035, Transparent Worker and Well-being Platforms will provide real-time visibility into contributions while addressing worker emotions and needs. These AI-driven platforms balance transparency with empathy, fostering trust and well-being in remote and hybrid work environments.
Holographic Collaboration Technology (2045): Holograms will be mainstreamed for remote collaboration, enabling lifelike, three-dimensional interactions. This technology will revolutionise virtual meetings and training sessions.
Trend 7: Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Like many of you, I was very excited when I used Chat GPT for the first time. It made me realise how fast it might change our lives and how powerful AI can become. It may influence all the other trends we talked about earlier.
Is AI the trend of trends, a universal accelerator? May AI even change the world order?
We can make predictions about how AI accelerates developments in specific technologies, for instance, in warfare, interpersonal interaction or medicine. But combining those paths and how they interact is impossible to predict. There are just too many variables. I have some fear that the fast, parallel and interrelated developments in many fields will create a dangerous chaotic world, at least for some time. But there are so many opportunities too!
How would you leverage AI to advance your mission?
Can you play a role in guiding AI toward a positive, ethical, and sustainable future?
Some critical events pre-2025:
IBM's Watson Wins Jeopardy (2011): This event, which demonstrated AI's advanced natural language processing capabilities, paved the way for AI's integration into various sectors. Watson's victory showcased AI's potential in handling complex queries and information.
AI for Good Global Summit (2017): This summit, launched by the ITU, focuses on leveraging AI to address global challenges. It brings together stakeholders to explore how AI is used ethically and effectively for social good.
Open AI Starts ChatGPT (2020): The launch of ChatGPT marked a significant advancement in conversational AI, providing tools for improved information dissemination and interaction. NGOs can use such technologies to enhance communication and engagement with stakeholders.
Here are three predictions on AI:
AI-Driven Global Health Initiatives (2030): As early as 2030, AI systems will probably predict and manage pandemics and enhance global health security. These initiatives will improve the ability to respond to health crises more effectively.
AI-related job loss will be a significant social issue (2035): Automation and artificial intelligence may replace traditional roles, leading to widespread unemployment and economic inequality. This shift will require urgent adaptation through reskilling programs and social safety nets to support affected workers and ensure a more equitable transition.
AI-Empowered Global Education Network (2040): AI will likely create personalised learning experiences, closing educational gaps worldwide. This network will facilitate equitable access to quality education for students globally.
As you explored the seven mega trends, you may have noticed that major transformations lie ahead, with some likely to have a significant impact—either positive or negative—on your work. Anticipating, evaluating, and responding to these trends early on is a vital aspect of providing strategic leadership for your organisation.
Here are three important questions for you and your team to reflect on:
Exercise questions:
What trends are most relevant to your organisation?
What visionary ideas could build on such trends or even influence those trend?
Could you and your organisation take any of those visionary ideas foward?
If you are interested in know more about the mega trends, join us at our upcoming event on January 27, 2025:
References
Some of you probably already guessed it: We used Chat GPT in the research and predictions for this article. Today, AI is beneficial in ideating possible future scenarios, which can provide critical insights for your strategies.
Opmerkingen